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International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2006)

InterSim:A network-based outbreak investigation and intervention planning tool.

Markus Schwehm
University of Tübingen, Institute of Medical biometry, Germa

Chris Leary
State University of New York at Geneseo, Dept. Mathematics, USA

Hans-Peter Duerr
University of Tübingen, Institute of Medical biometry, Germany

Martin Eichner
University of Tübingen, Institute of Medical biometry, Germany

     Full text: Not available
     Last modified: March 31, 2006

Abstract
----This abstract is for the Homeland and International Security track----

InterSim is a stochastic, individual-based and network-based outbreak investigation and intervention planning tool. The simulator has so far been adapted to directly transmitted infectious diseases like bio-terrorist smallpox, emerging SARS or pandemic influenza. Transmission of the disease between individuals is realised using a parameterized set of complex networks including small world, scale-free, local exponential, bipartite or social networks. The simulator has a strong focus on the modelling of intervention strategies. For this purpose, the basic SEIRS model for the natural history of a particular disease is complemented with a model for visible symptoms, for the surveillance system of the health care authorities and a modular set of independently selectable intervention strategies including contact tracing, isolation, seclusion, antiviral treatment, group quarantine and several vaccination policies. The simulator can model limited resources like the availability of antivirals as well as limited capacities e.g. for the execution of vaccination campaigns and priority queues for the allocation of scarce resources. The user interface allows to change all model parameters and the simulation engine is fast enough to allow interactive usage on populations with several 10.000 individuals. It is designed to help healthcare planners with the design and validation of intervention plans.

(We intend to demonstrate the capabilities of the simulator interactively at the conference.)




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