Global Harm and Precaution

Policy makers today are making decisions that have global consequences. If an action has a suspected risk of causing severe harm globally, then it should not be taken in the absence of scientific near-certainty about its safety. NECSI analyzes when such precaution is warranted.

Offers for Paris Climate Talks Would Reduce Warming by 1°C

Climate Models and Precautionary Measures, J. Norman, R. Read, Y. Bar-Yam, N.N. Taleb (May, 2015).

Response to review by Trevor Charles re: Precautionary Principle, N.N. Taleb, R. Read, R. Douady, J. Norman, Y. Bar-Yam (November 28, 2014).

The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms), N.N. Taleb, R. Read, R. Douady, J. Norman, Y. Bar-Yam (October 17, 2014).

Pandemics

In the era of global connectivity, it is easier than ever for epidemics to spiral into pandemics. NECSI analysis shows how best to contain them.

The case for pyriproxyfen as a potential cause of microcephaly; from biology to epidemiology, Y. Bar-Yam, H.F. Nijhout, R. Parens, F. Costa, and A.J. Morales (2017).

A possible link between pyriproxyfen and microcephaly, D. Evans, F. Nijhout, R. Parens, A.J. Morales and Y. Bar-Yam (April 14, 2016).

Zika and other potential causes of microcephaly in Brazil: Status March 8, 2016, R. Parens and Y. Bar-Yam (2016).

DRAFT Zika Virus Community Response, Y. Bar-Yam and R. Menapace (February 5, 2016).

Beyond contact tracing: Community-based early detection for Ebola response, D. Cooney, V. Wong and Y. Bar-Yam (May 26, 2014).

Risking It All: Why are public health authorities not concerned about Ebola in the US? Part I. Fat tailed distributions, Y. Bar-Yam (November 5, 2014).

The Potential for Increase in Global Ebola Transmission During End of Year Liberian Holiday Travel, K. Hall and Y. Bar-Yam (October, 2014).

Is The Response in Liberia Succeeding? Positive indications, Y. Bar-Yam (October 17, 2014).

Stopping Ebola Globally and in West Africa, Y. Bar-Yam (October 15, 2014).

Response to CDC Director Frieden’s Opposition to a Travel Ban, Y. Bar-Yam (October 13, 2014).

DRAFT New Ebola Response Strategy: Local Care Team Early Detection Response, Y. Bar-Yam (October 12, 2014).

The Threat of Ebola in the West, M. Hardcastle and Y. Bar-Yam (2014).

Effective Ebola Response: A Multiscale Approach, M. Hardcastle and Y. Bar-Yam (September 19, 2014).

Government

NECSI research shows that in the realm of governmental regulation, cost-benefit analysis can predict the efficacy of policy and the likelihood of corruption.

When representative democracy isn’t, Y. Bar-Yam, A. Siegenfeld, (November 20, 2016).

A lesson in the errors of statistical thinking: Nate Silver on Trump, Y. Bar-Yam, T. Bar-Yam, (July 16, 2016).

Corporations and Regulators: The Game of Influence in Regulatory Capture. D.K. Albino, A. Hu, Y. Bar-Yam (October 1, 2013).

Debt Limit: The Future of Democracy? Y. Bar-Yam, M. Woolsey (May, 2007).

Riots and Revolutions

What will the outcome of social unrest be? Will the protestors achieve what they desire? And if not, what strategies can be used to prevent the suffering that causes unrest and the suffering that results from it?

The Math That Explains the World: The Arab Spring (June 17, 2017).

Six-Year Report on the Arab Spring. R. Parens, Y. Bar-Yam (February 24, 2017).

Swiss-ification: Syria's Best Chance for Peace. Y. Bar-Yam, C. Friedman (September 4, 2013).

Political Stability and Military Intervention in Egypt. C. Friedman, D.K. Albino, Y. Bar-Yam (July 8, 2013).

Complexity and the Limits of Revolution: What Will Happen to the Arab Spring? A. Gard-Murray, Y. Bar-Yam (December 11, 2012).

The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. M. Lagi, K.Z. Bertrand, Y. Bar-Yam (August 10, 2011).

UPDATE February 2012 — The Food Crises: Predictive validation of a quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion. M. Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, K.Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (March 6, 2012).

South African Riots: Repercussion of the Global Food Crisis and US Drought. Yavni Bar-Yam, M. Lagi, and Yaneer Bar-Yam (January 2, 2013).

Contagion and cascades through the Middle East. K. Bertrand, Y. Bar Yam (February 1, 2011).

Framing a complexity theory solution to the Middle East crises. Y. Bar-Yam, A. S. Gard-Murray (February 24, 2011).

NECSI analyzes unrest in the Middle East. (2011).

Global Food

Increases in food prices have driven vulnerable populations to desperation. NECSI research shows how US agricultural policies have affected food prices and triggered the global food crisis and global unrest taking place today.

NECSI at 'Biofuels and American Energy' Panel Discussion. Dominic K Albino and Yaneer Bar-Yam (April 11, 2014).

Comment: Renewable Fuel Standard Assessment White Paper on Agricultural Sector Impacts. C. Friedman, D.K. Albino and Y. Bar-Yam (April 2, 2013).

Global Security and the Renewable Fuel Standard. D.K. Albino, C. Friedman and Y. Bar-Yam (April 1, 2013).

Myths and Facts about the Renewable Fuel Standard. D.K. Albino and Y. Bar-Yam (January 31, 2013).

South African Riots: Repercussion of the Global Food Crisis and US Drought. Yavni Bar-Yam, M. Lagi, and Yaneer Bar-Yam (January 2, 2013).

Food for fuel: The price of ethanol. D.K. Albino, K.Z. Bertrand, Y. Bar-Yam October 4, 2012).

Food briefing, K.Z. Bertrand, G. Lindsay, Y. Bar-Yam (August 15, 2012).

UPDATE July 2012 — The Food Crises: The US Drought. M. Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, Yaneer Bar-Yam (July 23, 2012).

Impact of ethanol conversion and speculation on Mexico corn imports, M. Lagi, A.S. Gard-Murray and Y. Bar-Yam (May 2012).

UPDATE February 2012 — The Food Crises: Predictive validation of a quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion. M. Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, K.Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (March 6, 2012).

Modeling Policy and Agricultural Decisions in Afghanistan. M.J. Widener, Yavni Bar-Yam, A. Gros, S. Metcalf, Yaneer Bar-Yam (November 21, 2011).

The Food Crises: A Quantitative Model of Food Prices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion. M. Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, K.Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (September 21, 2011).

The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. M. Lagi, K.Z. Bertrand, Y. Bar-Yam (August 10, 2011).

Ethnic Violence

NECSI analysis reveals how geography is key to predicting areas of friction between ethnic groups.

Conflict in Yemen: From Ethnic Fighting to Food Riots. A. Gros, A.S. Gard-Murray, Y. Bar-Yam (July 24, 2012)

Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence. A. Rutherford, D. Harmon, J. Werfel, S. Bar-Yam, A.S. Gard-Murray, A. Gros, Y. Bar-Yam (May 21, 2014).

Global Pattern Formation and Ethnic/Cultural Violence in Science, M. Lim, R. Metzler, and Y. Bar-Yam (September 14, 2007).

Global Control, Ethnic Violence and Terrorism, from Making Things Work, Y. Bar=-Yam (2005).

Ethnic Violence research page

Social Networks

NECSI has its finger on the pulse of social networks,tracking sentiment in real time and mapping news-sharing.

Global Patterns of Synchronization in Human Communications, A.J. Morales, V. Vavilala, R.M. Benito, Y. Bar-Yam (March 1, 2017).

Visualizing the “Heartbeat” of a City with Tweets, U. França, H. Sayama, C. McSwiggen, R. Daneshvar and Y. Bar-Yam (November 4, 2014).

Sentiment in New York City: A High Resolution Spatial and Temporal View. K.Z. Bertrand, M. Bialik, K. Virdee, A. Gros, Y. Bar-Yam (August 20, 2013).

An Exploration of Social Identity: The Structure of the BBC News-Sharing Community on Twitter. J. Adebayo, T. Musso, K. Virdee, C. Friedman, Y. Bar-Yam (August 2, 2013).

An Exploration of Social Identity: The Geography and Politics of News-Sharing Communities in Twitter, A. Herdağdelen, W. Zuo, A.S. Gard-Murray, Y. Bar-Yam (2013).

Corporate competition: A self-organized network D. Braha, B. Stacey, and Y. Bar-Yam (July 2011).

From centrality to temporary fame: dynamic centrality in complex networks in Complexity. D. Braha, Y. Bar-Yam (2006).

The transition from Search to Social Media: The future of information networks. Yaneer Bar-Yam.

Communications Systems

NECSI researchers modeled the Internet2 network to show function and disfunction in complex systems.

Vulnerability Analysis of High Dimensional Complex Systems, V. Misra, D. Harmon, and Y. Bar-Yam (2010).

Urban Food

In the urban environment, geography can limit access to nutritious food, and how we can design policies to overcome these limitations. NECSI analysis shows the implications for public health.

Developing a Mobile Produce Distribution System for Low-income Urban Residents in Food Deserts in Journal of Urban Health. M.J. Widener, S.S. Metcalf, and Y. Bar-Yam (2012).

Dynamic Urban Food Environments: A Temporal Analysis of Access to Healthy Foods in American Journal of Preventive Medicine. M.J. Widener, S. Metcalf, Y. Bar-Yam (September 22, 2011).

Agent-based Modeling of Policies to Improve Urban Food Access for Low-income Populations in Applied Geography. M.J. Widener, S. Metcalf, Y. Bar-Yam (2013).